Greece, Greece, Greece… Is that Papa guy ever going to get his act together and accept a check from the EU? is it 45 billion or 100 billion Euros now? What’s the deal with these riots in Athens?
Chances are you have answers to these questions, and a few extra cents to contribute to the discussion. Frankly, that’s what the comment box is for, so we won’t waste time on the issue beyond these next few words.
Greece will be bailed out by the European Union because the Euro is has been threatened too greatly, however by fusing the balance sheets of the weakest and strongest Euro-Zone states, the long term effect on Euro strength won’t be improved and the negative externalities that go along with a weak Euro will present themselves, only in a more civilized/deceptive manner.
The Goldman situation now has Warren Buffet speaking out in favor of the bank. I don’t suppose it has anything to do with his 43 million warrants for GS stock.
In Economic news, we’ll actually be caring whether a few things do or don’t develop. Mainly it’s a week where Manufacturing must keep selling the recovery in the ISM Manufacturing and Motor Vehicles reports, Housing will have to convince in the Construction Spending report, and Jobs need to gleam in the midst of an expected 100k+ temp jobs as a result of the 2010 U.S. Census.
Monday we’ll crack it open with an ISM Manufacturing headline number looking for inches up to 61.0. The March figure surprised, and April is expected to remain elevated due to strong new orders. Income and outlays are expected to rise by 0.4% and 0.6% respectively in the March report, yet incomes have averaged only 1% yearly gains since the rally began in 2009. The biggest number of the day will be Construction Spending, where the -1.3% change in February is planned to ease towards -0.3% expenditure growth in March. It’s really tough to get much clarity from housing as the tax credits to buyers are expiring as we speak.
Judging from the past, we’ll get the 10 am Factory Orders report before the Motor Vehicle sales on Tuesday. The unfixed announcement of motor vehicles is expected to show an unchanged SAAR annual rate of motor vehicle sales in the U.S., holding the 8.8 million unit pace. Factory orders, on a year over year basis, have peaked at 11% while shipments also look “toppy” around 6% yoy. The weekly change in orders is expected to dip by -0.1% in March, which should be interesting to compare to Monday’s ISM report.
Mortgage applications are expected to be positive Wednesday and will be closely watched, as the last week for buyers to sign purchase agreements came to a close. The April ISM Non-Manufacturing index, which has lagged it’s Manufacturing focused sister report, is expected to post a headline 56.4, up from 55.4 in March. We’re going to pay particularly close attention to the EIA Petroleum report on Wednesday as well, where oil inventories continue to rise as gasoline demand looks more firm amidst pump price hikes. Cushing Oklahoma, the delivery point for NYMEX crude oil and the WTI price futures, has only 16 million barrel land storage facility and oil tankers sit off the coast full to the brim.
Thursday brings last weeks jobless claims, the Fed Balance Sheet, Money Supply, and the Cost and Productivity report, none of which will affect markets. Instead take some chips off of the table ahead of a ringer report from the Employment Situation on Friday.
Friday is all about the jobs numbers. Bloomberg’s economists say we’ll pick up 200k jobs in April’s report, Goldman Sachs says the economy added 175k, but that 115k of those are Census temps, while the range of other analysts’ estimates gap 110k to 500k. The past two reports for February and March have come at the end of rally weeks for equities, and have had favorable results. This time, the S&P 500 has entered a volatile bout of trading and technicals show stocks overbought. The non farm payrolls number will have to beat Goldman and Bloomberg with +200k jobs added in April to keep bulls satisfied and bears at bay.
Also of note this week, China is tightening the reigns on it’s banks, in an effort to stem real estate linked bubbles as a result of lax monetary policy. The minimum reserve requirement for the nations largest banks has been raised 50 basis points from 16.5% to 17%. This development is likely to fight the calming Aegean waters for sentiment as trading kicks off Monday morning.
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