Comment by Steven S. Bammel on January 7, 2011 at 6:13am

Thanks, Don! Valuable report...

 

You mentioned that the six-way talks will get back underway this year. How do you think that will come about considering that South Korea and the US are refusing to re-engage with North Korea until the North apologizes for past provocations? North Korea has never apologized for anything...

 

Also, can you give us a  details about the anticipated effects of the US-Korea and EU-Korea FTA ratifications on Korean global business in 2011?

Comment by Don Southerton on January 7, 2011 at 6:28am

Steven, 

As for resuming the 6-Way Talks, the tough talk is also accompanied by lots of high-level officials

working to re-start the talks. I've see this pattern time and time again.

Korea Herald did a great job of summing up the situation.

 

Preconditions for reopening dialogue to be delivered to the North ‘via inter-Korean channel’

While maintaining tough rhetoric, South Korea and the U.S. appear to be opening the door to possible peace talks with North Korea, apparently sending messages Pyongyang that the issue depends upon its attitude from this point on. 

Positive changes have been brewing on the tense Korean Peninsula since North Korea called for better ties with the South in its New Year’s editorial, in its first mention of peace since conducting two deadly attacks against Seoul in March and November. 

Echoing President Lee Myung-bak’s New Year’s message earlier this week, Seoul’s Foreign Ministry said Tuesday it is discussing with four partners of the multinational talks on North Korea’s denuclearization ― Washington, Tokyo, Beijing and Moscow ― the terms of resuming the stalled dialogue. 

The aid-for-denuclearization talks involving the two Koreas and the four regional powers have been stalled since December 2008, when Pyongyang left the negotiating table and conducted a second atomic test. 

While North Korea’s two traditional allies China and Russia have been calling for an immediate resumption of the talks, which could secure outside aid for Pyongyang, the U.S., Japan and South Korea have been keener to condemn and further isolate the communist state for its provocations. 

“Once the terms are finalized, we are going to try delivering them to North Korea via an inter-Korean dialogue channel,” an official here said, asking not to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue. 

“All five partners agree that talks between the two Koreas should start off discussions regarding the six-party talks,” the official added, noting that Pyongyang’s has in the past shunned direct talks with Seoul, instead wanting one-on-one talks with Washington over its nuclear standoff. “Partners also persist that the denuclearization talks can only resume after N

Comment by Don Southerton on January 9, 2011 at 10:39pm

To follow up on the second part of Steven's question regarding FTA. I'll be watch the KORUS FTA closely.  I was glad to see Amb. Han comment on the treaty.  As for the KORUS FTA's impact outside reducing and/ or eliminating tariffs, I'm curious how fast global law firms and services once restricted from operating in Korea will move forward... 

 

ATLANTA, Jan. 8 (Yonhap) -- South Korean ambassador Han Duck-soo on Saturday expressed his expectations that the Obama administration will soon present the free trade deal with South Korea to Congress for its ratification by the end of June.

   "I expect the Obama administration will submit the Korea-U.S. FTA to Congress sooner or later so Congress can approve it by the end of June," Han told a forum here hosted by the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). "More than 900 American enterprises and business organizations support the Korea FTA, and we thank the AFBF and other agricultural organizations for their support."

   Industry sources expect Obama will present the deal revised early last month to Congress later this month.

   The new deal calls for a delayed phaseout of auto tariffs, among others, in return for Washington's concessions on pork and medicine.

   Obama has said he will send the deal to Congress early this year, hoping the deal with South Korea, the seventh biggest trading partner for the U.S., will help achieve his ambitious goal of doubling exports within five years.

   Han said the implementation of the deal will create 70,000 jobs in the U.S., citing statistics from the U.S. Commerce Department.

   The envoy also cited figures by the U.S. International Trade Commission that shows the Korea FTA will help South Korea increase shipments to the U.S. by US$7 billion while enhancing U.S. exports to South Korea by $11 billion annually.

   Some studies show that the deal would increase annual two-way trade by more than $20 billion.

   The U.S. goods trade deficit with South Korea was $10.6 billion in 2009, down $2.8 billion from 2008.

   Free trade is seen as one of the potential areas of close cooperation between Obama and congressional Republicans, who regained control of the House in the midterm elections in November.

   Many congressional Democrats, backed by trade unions, oppose free trade due to fears over further job cuts.

   Failure to present the deal to Congress by early this year would likely doom it, as Republicans vow to focus on domestic issues, including taxes and a reversal of Obama's health care reform policy, ahead of the presidential election in 2012.

   Han expected that the deal's effectuation will help increase shipments of U.S. beef, pork and poultry by $2.1 billion annually to create more than 27,000 jobs in the U.S. meat industry.

   He dismissed concerns that the U.S. demand for wider access to the South Korean beef market would serve as a stumbling block to the Korea FTA's ratification.

   "Beef from cattle over 30 months old accounts for just 3 percent of all U.S. beef exports," he said, noting that U.S. beef exports to South Korea have surged dramatically and made up 37 percent of all beef imports, the second biggest after Australia, in 2009.

   South Korea bans shipments of beef from cattle over 30 months old due to fears of mad cow disease, which prompted weeks of street rallies against U.S. beef in Seoul in 2008.

   Beef is not an issue covered by the Korea FTA, but Sen. Max Baucus (D-Montana) has threatened to not move the FTA forward unless Seoul allows shipments of beef from cattle of all ages. Montana is said

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